By Pervez Hoodbhoy Dawn,
Wednesday, 02 Sep, 2009
http://www.dawn.com/wps/wcm/connect/dawn-content-library/dawn/the-newspaper/editorial/indias-nuclear-fizzle-299
SUSPICION has now turned into confirmed fact:
Instead of 45 kilotons of destructive energy, the explosion had produced only
15 to 20. The bomb had not worked as designed.
Why blow the whistle 11 years later? An irresistible urge to tell the truth or
moral unease is scarcely the reason. Santanam's
"coming clean" has the stamp of approval of the most hawkish of
Indian nuclear hawks. Among them
are P.K. Iyengar, A.N. Prasad, Bharat
Karnad and Brahma Chellaney. By rubbishing the earlier test as a
failure, they hope to make the case for more nuclear tests. This would enable
As is well known, a thermonuclear (or hydrogen) bomb is far more complex than
the relatively simple fission weapon first tested by
By generating a pro-test environment, India's nuclear hawks hope to make life
difficult for Prime Minister Manmohan Singh's
moderate government whenever India's signing of the Comprehensive Test Ban
Treaty (CTBT) comes up for discussion. Santanam's
revelation has been spurred by the fear that if President Obama
succeeds in his initiative to revive the CTBT - which had essentially been shot
dead by the US Senate in 1999 - the doors on nuclear testing could be shut
worldwide. A race against the clock is on. There are not the only ominous
developments.
its 7,000-ton nuclear-powered submarine with underwater ballistic missile
launch capability, the first in a planned fleet of five.
On the Pakistani side, the desire to maintain nuclear parity with
number of nuclear weapons from roughly 50 to 100".
This is bad news for those Pakistanis, like myself,
who have long opposed
separately, that the loud claims of "minimal deterrence" by nuclear
hawks
on both sides are a proven sham. Only the sky is the limit.
Stuck with an arms race that is fuelled by India's newfound economic strength,
what should Pakistan do - Before contemplating alternatives, one must calmly scrutinise India's motives and disaggregate the threats
that Pakistan faces both externally and internally.
First, an unpalatable truth -
An example: this month's article by Bharat Verma, the hawkish editor of the influential Indian Defence Review, makes the preposterous prediction that
superior to Nazi Germany". Verma's solution:
has enough military muscle to stay safe in this regard, even if
On the other hand,
These are: population growth, terrorism and provincial tensions.
availability of water is inevitable and is certain to become a source of
serious internal violence as well as growing tensions with
Terrorism, fortunately, is not yet out of control. But recent army victories
and the elimination of Baitullah Mehsud,
while welcome, are far from decisive. The epicentres
of terrorism are highly mobile. Religious radicalism has penetrated deep into
the core of
mountains.
Nationalist struggles, with those
in Balochistan being the most serious, are a third
important threat. They are indicative of the deep unhappiness felt by a good
fraction of Pakistanis living outside
These are serious existential
threats. But they cannot be met by following
Instead, the way to create a viable Pakistan lies in embarking on an emergency
population planning programme, building a sustainable
and active democracy on the back of a welfare state, restructuring the economy for
peace rather than war, remaking the federation so that provincial grievances
can be effectively resolved, eliminating the feudal order and creating a
tolerant society that respects the rule of law and does not
discriminate between citizens.